Are you a blind ANC follower?

This week has seen more about the potential dropping of corruption charges against the ANC president and the debacle regarding the refusal of a visa for the Dalai Lama (and here).

It is sad reading the articles quoting Finance Minister Trevor Manuel (and here) and Foreign Minister Nkosazana Zuma - I believe any objective, vaguely intelligent person would see the glaring hypocrisy in the ANC's stance with regard to the Dalai Lama. A liberation organisation that fought for freedom of speech and the right to disagree - banning a visit because of the SA state's relationship with China and its endorsement of the One-China policy? The ANC continues to ignore the flagrant human rights abuses of China, Burma, Zimbabwe and others. Its position seems dictated by "pro-non-west" policy rather than thoughtful interrogation of what is right.

It would seem that the ANC would rather turn a blind eye to the ZANU murder of thousands and continued state sponsored violence in Zimbabwe than be embarrassed by the failure of an African leader.

Similarly they would turn a blind eye to the oppression of opposition to the Burmese military dictatorship.

And they would ignore the detention and murder of Tibetan activists in China.

The hypocrisy and arrogance is embodied in their leadership by a man (Jacob Zuma) who talks of having "laws that bite" and cracking down on corruption - but has pulled every legal option available to avoid going to court - including threatening to make public tapes embarrassing the former president Mbeki and the National Prosecuting Authority (and here).

Let's make this clear. I am sure I speak on behalf of almost all objective South Africans when I say that all those guilty of wrong should be prosecuted without fear or favour. If Mbeki knew of the arms deal corruption, he too should be prosecuted. If the NPA generally, or Leonard McCarthy specifically, were politically motivated in their actions, they should be prosecuted.

It is only when all believe they will be equally prosecuted before the law that all will equally abide by it. The best example of the consequences of a group believing they deserve different treatment is the behaviour of taxi drivers in South Africa - people who disregard the law because they believe they stand apart.

I can't believe the ANC and their supporters fail to see the hypocrisy. During apartheid they implored the world to give them a voice they were denied at home. Denying the Dalai Lama the same opportunity seems to be in their collective blind spot.

Further, the ANC response lends credence to the rumour that their denial of the visa was ordered by China - an order more weighty through funding of the ANC election campaign by the Chinese government.

Even over the past few months, any disagreement from within their own ranks has conveniently become treasonous. Witness the response to Minister Hogan's criticism of the Dalai Lama scandal and this letter from Duncan Hindle - "The individual should not criticise the collective." Anyone for the return of Stalinism perhaps? Merely a few months back, anti-Mbeki sentiment within the ANC was excused under the headline, "The ANC is a broad church and has room for many opinions." Even more recently, Malema's rantings are excused as being those of a young man who would one day know better.

Sadly it is the ANC supporters that give rise for the most concern. The rabid unquestioning support visible in comments below every article about any of the above-mentioned issues would seem as racist and unquestioning as that of the conservative supporters under apartheid.

It reminds me of the result of the unquestioning support from the West provided to Idi Amin in his rise to power. Murmurings of his abuses were swept under the carpet as the west saw someone they thought they could control. As his power grew, the monster threw off his minders and the result was clear for all to see. Similarly, the Matabeleland murders by Mugabe and his followers were allowed to be covered up. The result is again clear to see.

If we are to enjoy the hard won successes of the liberation struggle, then it is each of our responsibilities to question all leaders and representatives equally. If we call what is right or wrong without partisanship, we stand stronger together. If we have the security to ensure our leaders are defined by us rather than us being defined by our leaders, we need not fear their failure making us less worthy.

The fall of the US?

Interesting article...

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/14/world/asia/14china.html?_r=1&th&emc=th

I think the world is on dangerous ground. The US economy has defied economic principle for so long. Twin deficits (budget and current account), capital flows based on financial rather than real assets, and the world’s biggest ponzi scheme – US treasury bonds (there is no prospect of repayment without more issues of debt – as long as the US cannot run a budget surplus). The US is also in a de facto liquidity trap – their real interest rates are currently negative and they cannot stimulate demand through further monetary policy. The minute anyone starts questioning US treasuries and the dollar as a flight to quality, the whole house of cards looks shaky.

What happens if it collapses? Panic regarding the US dollar as a currency standard – return to the gold standard? IMF SDRs as a reserve currency (unlikely given the link to the US)?

How does it collapse? Plunge in the value of US bonds, flight to “real assets” such as hard commodities, plunge in the value of the US dollar, repricing of oil in other currencies (what – not sure) – petrodollars stop. Without investment in US debt and without the Middle East needing to recycle petrodollars, the US is then forced to run current account and budget surpluses. That dries up US demand for international exports setting off a horrendous second round.

Even if the financial crisis has a more orderly unwinding, the money that streamed into US treasuries as a flight to quality will start looking for returns rather than a negative real 1-2%. Those investors are likely to look to other markets, causing a depreciation of the US Dollar.

China is the first wildcard in all of this. They have kept their currency fixed to a low value against the US Dollar for years to ensure continued cheap Chinese goods and US demand. To do this they have had to support the value of the US dollar and find dollar investment for all the dollars they have earned on exports to the US.

The Middle East is the second wildcard. Oil is paid in US dollars and to support the value of oil the Middle East has had to find US dollar investments for the petrodollars.

If either of those two wildcards change behavior, the whole pack comes crashing down.

The shift of power to the Middle East and China is remarkable.

The implications seem fairly dire. The Japanese have funded US lives for years. Now the Chinese have taken over. What is the implication of massive falls in the value of the investments of those countries?

What is a good investment in the post US world? What is the new gold standard? There were problems with gold as a store of value due to its low intrinsic value. Will we see the IMF or another body act as a “Commodities bank” buying up commodities with future value (metals, oil, coal, etc) and creating some sort of combined unit to act as a new reserve currency?